AGP Executive Report

German Intelligence Scandal: Former head of Germany’s BND spy service August Hanning was detained on suspicion of espionage and attempted treason, with reports alleging contact involving Azerbaijan—sparking fears of damage to Western intelligence ties. Armenia-Azerbaijan Normalization: Commentary and diplomatic coverage keep spotlight on the normalization process, with unresolved human-rights and detainee issues framed as a test of durable peace. Regional Security & Military Cooperation: Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Uzbekistan held the “Eternal Brotherhood - V” special forces exercise, while Baku also continues defense training cooperation with the UK. Azerbaijan-Africa Outreach: Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov discussed deepening ties with Nigeria, including people-to-people links. Digital Governance: Azerbaijan’s Finance Minister met DCO officials on financing digital transformation and public finance digitalization. Foreign Policy & Transport Corridors: Russia-Azerbaijan relations were highlighted alongside continued work on the North-South corridor. Domestic Policy: Cabinet approved dress requirements for teachers in state schools. Repatriation: Azerbaijan repatriated 13 citizens from Syria for social rehabilitation. Sports (Baku): World Judo Championships saw French Olympic medallist Sarah-Leonie Cysique hospitalized after a head injury.

Azerbaijan–UK Ties: UK Minister of State for Trade Lord Anas Sarwar said Prime Minister Andy Burnham wants to take relations with Azerbaijan “to a new level,” with a bilateral working group aimed at moving from talks to action and boosting business links. Regional Security: Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Uzbekistan took part in the fifth “Eternal Brotherhood” multinational special forces exercise, focused on joint operations, reconnaissance, hostage rescue and interoperability. Armenia Border Incident: Armenia’s parliament speaker Ruben Rubinyan said it remains unclear how an Azerbaijani serviceman ended up in Armenia, calling it an illegal border crossing and a criminal case rather than sabotage. Azerbaijan–US Strategic Partnership: Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov met US Special Envoy adviser Aryeh Lightstone, reviewing the 2025 Washington summit, the 2026 Strategic Partnership Charter, and cooperation on energy, investment and high technology. Energy Cooperation: Azerbaijan and bp expanded cooperation via new projects, including Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli associated gas and green energy/decarbonization plans. Space & Tech Diplomacy: Azercosmos showcased Earth observation and GIS at the International Astronautical Congress in Antalya, where the “Antalya Declaration on Space for Peace” was adopted. Public Oversight & Rights: Azerbaijan’s antimonopoly and consumer market agency held talks in Türkiye on consumer rights protection and complaint handling. Maritime Safety: Azerbaijan’s MFA reported an Azerbaijani captain was killed and another citizen missing after a drone attack on the Royad Mammadov cargo vessel in the Black Sea, with consular assistance and repatriation steps underway. Climate Agenda: President Ilham Aliyev told Pre-COP Leaders in Fiji that Azerbaijan put Small Island Developing States priorities at the forefront of COP29 and is pushing momentum toward COP31.

Azerbaijan-US Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov spoke by phone with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, highlighting progress under the Azerbaijan-US Strategic Partnership Charter, including energy, hydrocarbon projects, investment, digital cooperation and trade, alongside continued work on Azerbaijan-Armenia normalization. Africa Outreach: Bayramov also called Nigeria’s FM Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu, agreeing to deepen cooperation across political, economic and humanitarian areas and coordinate in OIC, NAM, IPU and D-8, with Azerbaijan stressing its scholarship opportunities for Nigerians. Regional Security & Military Cooperation: Azerbaijan’s special forces took part in counter-terror exercises in Karachi with Pakistan, focused on hostage rescue and ship liberation, under a bilateral working-group protocol. Black Sea Tensions: A Turkish-owned grain vessel, carrying Azerbaijani citizens, was reported sunk after a drone attack off Romania; Ukraine blamed Russia, while Romania confirmed deaths and a rescue operation. Domestic Policy & Defense Posture: Commentary on President Ilham Aliyev’s YAP congress speech frames Azerbaijan’s approach as “peace through strength,” pairing a peace agenda with plans to further bolster security, ideological resilience and independent foreign policy. Sports & Culture in Baku: The World Judo Championships opened with Aliyev in attendance, while Azerbaijan also received a World Aquatics environmental award tied to Caspian conservation efforts.

YAP Leadership Update: Azerbaijan’s ruling New Azerbaijan Party amended its charter to remove the five-year term limit for its chair, meaning President Ilham Aliyev will not need re-election as party leader every five years. Security & Peace Narrative: An EU Reporter analytical piece frames Aliyev’s YAP congress speech around “peace through strength,” linking territorial security, ideological resilience, and an independent foreign policy. Regional Connectivity: The World Bank says the Middle Corridor needs over $55bn by 2040, arguing infrastructure must be paired with border and logistics reforms to cut delays and raise trade. Caspian Trade Push: Kazakhstan’s Aktau Port has started major dredging to counter Caspian Sea decline, aiming to deepen waters and lift Middle Corridor cargo capacity by up to 30% by end-2026. Energy Diplomacy: Moldova plans to diversify gas supplies by buying from the U.S., Romania and Azerbaijan, with deliveries targeted for the third quarter of next year. Azerbaijan-Iran Security Talks: Iran and Azerbaijan stressed law-enforcement and security cooperation ahead of an Iranian interior minister visit. Domestic Industry: Aliyev attended the opening of a $114m pharmaceutical plant in Pirallahi, backing Azerbaijan’s push for pharmaceutical independence. Culture & Soft Power: A documentary on female deminers in Garabagh won a “Special Mention from the Jury” at a European film festival.

Azerbaijan-Armenia Peace Process: Armenia’s PM Nikol Pashinyan says signing and ratifying the initialed peace agreement with Azerbaijan is now a top government priority, linking it to border work and opening regional communications. Border & Security Tensions: Armenia denies claims that positions near Berdavan were transferred to Azerbaijani control, calling the reports fabricated as both sides continue to trade accusations amid delimitation talks. Diplomacy with Iran: Azerbaijan’s Deputy PM Shahin Mustafayev met Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran, with both sides stressing expanded cooperation in trade, transport and energy. Regional Connectivity: Georgia’s PM Irakli Kobakhidze says the TRIPP “Trump Route” will complement the Middle Corridor, citing a sevenfold rise in Middle Corridor cargo since 2020. Domestic Politics & Society: A hijab dispute in Sumqayit follows new public-school uniform rules adopted in late September, sparking debate over secular education and religious expression. High-Level Messaging: President Ilham Aliyev reiterated that the world’s only “superpowers” are the USA and China in a speech shared from the YAP congress. Legal/Consular Case: An Azerbaijani woman identified as Diana left Lahore for Baku under Pakistani police escort amid an ongoing assault case.

Aliyev’s YAP Congress Message: President Ilham Aliyev shared a video from the 8th YAP congress, stressing “no place for emotions in politics” and warning that surrendering to emotion would have led to a “third Victory Arch” in Yerevan. Baku-Tehran Talks: Azerbaijan’s Deputy PM Shahin Mustafayev met Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran, with both sides highlighting expanding cooperation in trade, transport and energy; no new deal was announced, but relations were framed as “friendship and good neighbourliness.” Armenia Denies Berdavan Claims: Armenia rejected reports that several positions near Berdavan in Tavush were transferred to Azerbaijani control amid border delimitation, calling the claims “fabrication” and denying any such concessions. Armenian Trust Erosion: An Armenian academic warned public trust in Armenia’s government has fallen to about 11–12%, citing rising anxiety and lack of clarity on internal reforms and foreign-policy goals. Superpower Rhetoric: Aliyev said the world has only two superpowers—USA and China—pointing to Azerbaijan’s strategic partnerships with both, while not naming Russia. Humanitarian Visit Bid: An Armenian MP said she is ready to travel to Baku to seek an OSCE humanitarian visit for Armenian detainees, alleging closed-door trials and limited family access. Regional Security Context: Russia said it will intensify strikes on Ukraine’s military and military-industrial targets, while Israel ordered closures into Gaza and the West Bank around the Oct. 7 anniversary. Sports & Diplomacy: Azerbaijan hosted UEFA Nations League action (Azerbaijan vs Lithuania) and prepared for the Baku World Judo Championships with hundreds of international media accredited.

Foreign Policy & Superpowers: President Ilham Aliyev told the ruling New Azerbaijan party that the world has only two superpowers—the USA and China—while stressing Baku’s strategic ties with both and partnerships with EU states. Parliamentary Diplomacy: Milli Majlis Speaker Sahiba Gafarova led an Azerbaijan delegation to Tanzania for the 153rd Inter-Parliamentary Union assembly, underscoring Baku’s multilateral outreach. Regional Security Drills: Azerbaijan hosted the “Power of Unity – 2026” exercise with Turkey and Uzbekistan, rehearsing drone warfare, electronic attacks, border incidents and maritime operations with 3,500 troops. NATO Partnership Friction: Politico reports NATO cooperation plans for Armenia and Azerbaijan are stalled due to disputes inside the alliance, with France and Turkey blocking parallel frameworks. Armenia-Azerbaijan Flashpoint: Multiple reports kept focus on the Shaki incident, with Azerbaijan’s NSS saying an Azerbaijani serviceman entered Shaki, shot a civilian, and was detained—fueling renewed debate over border security failures. Diplomatic Outreach: Azerbaijan’s foreign minister spoke by phone with Iran’s top diplomat about regional developments. International Pressure on Prisoners: French politicians called for the release of Armenian prisoners held in Baku, citing concerns raised in European and US forums.

NATO Partnership Block: France blocked NATO’s new partnership plans for Azerbaijan, citing the detention of a French citizen; Turkey then blocked a similar Armenia document, insisting both Individually Tailored Partnership Programmes be approved together—after Aliyev released detainees, pressure is growing on Paris to lift the veto. Social Policy & Economy: President Ilham Aliyev tied Azerbaijan’s next economic stage to people’s incomes, ordering increases in the minimum wage, pensions and social allowances for 2027. Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process: Azerbaijan’s presidential representative said eliminating inconsistencies between a peace agreement and Armenia’s constitution is necessary, while Swiss talks in Bern focused on normalization, regional security and humanitarian demining. International Cooperation: Azerbaijan and Switzerland discussed expanding ties in industry, green energy, digital tech, agriculture and tourism, including Swiss involvement in reconstruction in liberated territories. Diplomacy with Germany: Aliyev sent a congratulatory letter to German President Steinmeier on German Unity Day, calling Germany a key partner and highlighting the strategic agenda for bilateral partnership. Sports Diplomacy: Aliyev met International Judo Federation President Marius Vizer and awarded him the “Dostlug” Order for supporting judo and Baku’s World Judo Championships. Public Events: Baku’s Olive Festival is set for Oct. 23–25 at Baku Boulevard, promoting local olive producers and traditions.

ADEX 2026 & Securex Caspian: Azerbaijan’s 6th defence exhibition opened at Baku Expo Center with heavy equipment and law-enforcement security tech on display, while officials used the event to stress that cyber defense in the defence sector is “satisfactory,” with no recorded incidents so far. Regional Security: Defence chiefs from Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Georgia met in Shusha for the 13th trilateral format, pledging deeper military cooperation, exercises, and coordination amid rising regional tensions. Peace Process & Armenia: Hikmet Hajiyev told CAMCA in Baku that Baku seeks peace with Armenia’s government and society, expects Armenia to amend constitutional territorial-claims provisions, and warned of “revanchist” thinking among Armenian youth. Legal/Border Developments: Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor General opened/expanded criminal cases tied to a serviceman’s illegal entry into Armenia’s Syunik after a shooting incident, while the State Border Service reported 593+ kg of drug seizures and detentions for border violations in September. Diplomacy & Connectivity: World Bank officials at CAMCA said the Middle Corridor’s trade and jobs impact could multiply by 2040, with Azerbaijan highlighted as a key coordinator; separate talks also covered customs cooperation with Greece. Party Politics: Azerbaijan’s New Azerbaijan Party moved to remove the five-year term limit for its chairman, citing Ilham Aliyev’s continued leadership. International Context: Tehran’s international flights reportedly fell 42% after US sanctions on Iranian airlines.

ADEX 2026 Defence & Industry: China displayed a full-scale J-10C fighter in Azerbaijani markings at ADEX in Baku, with reports saying a contract for Azerbaijan’s air force has been signed; the move deepens Baku’s military-industrial ties with Beijing after Azerbaijan’s JF-17 Block III experience. Regional Security & Diplomacy: At the Valdai forum, Putin said Azerbaijan supports the North-South corridor and that there are “no issues” with Baku on implementation. CICA Media & Governance: Baku hosted the first CICA media forum on “Building Trust through Media in a Polarized World,” with President Ilham Aliyev stressing public diplomacy and factual dialogue amid disinformation. Middle Corridor Economics: A World Bank-backed forum in Georgia discussed how to unlock the Middle Corridor’s trade potential, focusing on logistics efficiency and reforms through 2040. Armenia-Azerbaijan Tensions: Armenia reported a detained Azerbaijani serviceman in Syunik after a shooting incident, while Azerbaijan said a criminal case was opened over a missing serviceman in the Lachin direction. Public Administration Innovation: Azerbaijan promoted its ASAN Khidmet people-powered service model at a UN forum in the Dominican Republic.

CICA & Media Diplomacy: Azerbaijan kicked off the CICA Media Forum in Baku on “Building Trust through Media in a Polarized World,” with Hikmet Hajiyev and CICA officials stressing media responsibility amid disinformation and hate speech. Civil Service Reform: Milli Majlis officials say the new Civil Service Code will remove the need for civil servants to take exams to keep serving after entry, with performance assessed under a new procedure. Security & Justice Cooperation: Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor General Kamran Aliyev met Russia’s Alexander Gutsan and signed a 2027–2028 cooperation program; Azerbaijan’s military prosecutors also joined a CIS-SCO roundtable in Kazan focused on border security and legality. Armenia-Azerbaijan Incident: Armenia says an Azerbaijani serviceman shot an Armenian citizen in Syunik’s Shaki; Armenia opened criminal proceedings and detained the serviceman. Defense Industry & Exercises: ADEX 2026 showcased Azerbaijan’s new M4-based national assault rifle; Turkey’s defense chief Yaşar Güler attended “Power of Unity – 2026” drills in Azerbaijan. Energy Deals: SOCAR signed a shareholders’ agreement for a 500 MW combined-cycle gas plant in Serbia’s Niš (50/50 JV with EPS and Srbijagas), while Azerbaijan reported 61+ bcm of gas delivered to Europe via TAP. Humanitarian Pressure: In Yerevan, the Artsakh Union delivered 1,254 letters to Armenian detainees in Azerbaijan to the Armenian government, urging action to ensure delivery and prisoner visits.

ADEX-2026 Defense Diplomacy: Azerbaijan’s top brass met Iranian and Russian defense officials on Sept. 30, with both sides stressing expanded military-technical cooperation and regional security talks. Türkiye-Azerbaijan Military Deals: Ankara and Baku signed defense contracts worth over $500M, including 14 Hurkus-II trainer aircraft, plus systems for loitering munitions, coastal defense and radar cooperation. ASELSAN Partnership: ASELSAN and Azerbaijani partners signed a term sheet aimed at a strategic production facility in Nakhchivan and potential procurement of ALP-100 air surveillance radars. Parliament & Mobility: Milli Majlis approved visa-free travel with Jordan for holders of ordinary passports (up to 90 days) and also backed a Slovakia deal on exchanging and protecting classified information. Energy & Industry: Azerbaijan Railways is moving toward AI-based solutions to detect obstacles on tracks in real time. Regional Human Rights/UN: Azerbaijan raised missing persons from the First Karabakh War at the UN Human Rights Council, citing lack of transparent cooperation and mine risks. Georgia Tensions: A Georgian court case followed the detention of an Armenian citizen accused of damaging a Heydar Aliyev bust in Tbilisi. Tourism Push: Azerbaijan promoted its tourism brand at Euronews’ Brussels summit, highlighting new direct flight plans to Europe.

Parliament & Security: The Milli Majlis approved an Azerbaijan–Slovakia deal on exchanging and protecting classified information, setting rules for access, transfer and electronic transmission. Diplomacy & Travel: MPs also backed visa-free travel for Jordanian ordinary passport holders and approved an air services agreement with Mongolia. Defense & Industry: At ADEX-2026, Azerbaijan’s Defence Minister Zakir Hasanov met the UAE’s defence minister to discuss military-technical cooperation and joint exercises; Azerbaijan also signed a contract with Türkiye to buy HÜRKUŞ-II trainer aircraft. Regional Military Drills: “Power of Unity – 2026” continued with another phase focused on joint operations, minefield breaching and assaults on simulated terrorist positions. Foreign Policy at the UN: Azerbaijan raised missing persons from the First Karabakh War at the UN Human Rights Council, urging Armenia to provide mass-grave mapping and coordinates. Economy & Connectivity: Azerbaijan–China investment talks advanced with a $1bn joint investment fund, while the Middle Corridor saw cargo volumes rise 22% in the first eight months of 2026.

ADEX-2026 Defence Diplomacy: Azerbaijan’s Defence Minister Zakir Hasanov met Belarus’ military industry chief Dmitry Pantus and Sudan’s Lt. Gen. Hassan Daoud Kabron on the sidelines of ADEX-2026, focusing on military-technical cooperation and next-generation technologies. Slovakia Partnership Push: Slovak Deputy PM/Defence Minister Robert Kaliňák visited Baku for Constitution Day events and said Slovakia will present a joint automated mortar system with Azerbaijan at ADEX; Azerbaijan’s parliament speaker Sahiba Gafarova called the ties a strategic partnership at the highest level. Prosecutor-General Meets Russia: Prosecutor General Kamran Aliyev presented a cooperation medal to Russia’s Supreme Court chairman Igor Krasnov, highlighting legal collaboration and experience-sharing. Investment & Industry: An Indian firm (UFlex/UFlex Middle East) will build a $117.7m packaging plant in Alat FEZ with 60,000 tons annual capacity, signed during the 2nd Azerbaijan International Investment Forum. Regional Transport & Energy Links: Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian told Azerbaijan’s deputy PM Shahin Mustafayev that rail and air links should be expanded to deepen ties. Travel & Mobility: St. Kitts and Nevis signed a visa-waiver deal with Azerbaijan at UNGA 81. Legal/Finance Shock: Russia tightened cash ruble export rules, capping cash outflows to Azerbaijan at 1 million rubles.

Central Banking & Markets: Azerbaijan’s Central Bank deputy Ali Ahmadov met Standard Chartered’s Jojo Ow on integrating local financial markets into the global system, including work on reserves, sovereign bonds and money markets. Humanitarian Security: A new look at Azerbaijan’s mine problem argues the danger beneath liberated territories still blocks return, development and safety, with clearing explosive remnants described as a long-term, resource-heavy task. Legal & Rights: Azerbaijan has appealed an ECHR June 18 ruling in the Major Toroyan case to the Grand Chamber, with a lawyer saying success odds are low and the fight centers on legal interpretation. Armenia-Related Diplomacy: The civic group HayaQve says it filed three appeals to international partners warning that visits to Artsakh should not legitimize anti-Armenian realities or cultural misattribution. Regional Cooperation: Turkey says the Azerbaijan-hosted “Unity’s Strength-2026” drills in Nakhchivan are continuing successfully, highlighting joint readiness against hybrid threats. Energy & Transit: Iran’s power utility says it needs more electricity from Azerbaijan ahead of winter, underscoring growing interdependence. International Attention to Media: US groups renewed calls for the release of Azerbaijani journalists Ulviyya Ali and Farid Mehralizada.

U.S.–Azerbaijan Prisoner Link: Bipartisan U.S. senators urged the Trump administration to make the release of all political prisoners in Azerbaijan—over 300—an explicit condition for strengthening the Strategic Partnership, citing arbitrary detentions and repression of independent journalists, opposition figures, and civil society. Climate Diplomacy in Parliament: Azerbaijan’s Milli Majlis is set to approve an MoU with the UN climate bodies (Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement), after committee review ahead of Climate Week and the Adaptation Committee meeting. Middle Corridor Governance: The World Bank says Azerbaijan Railways (ADY) is key to the Middle Corridor but needs tariff-policy and corporate-governance reforms, including cost-to-serve pricing and clearer separation of commercial and social transport obligations. UN “Right of Return” Push: A UN conference in New York, organized by the Baku Initiative Group, concluded with a peaceful demonstration and renewed calls for a right of return for Western Azerbaijanis under international law and human-rights standards. Azerbaijan–Iran Talks: Deputy PM Shahin Mustafayev met Iran’s roads and urban development minister to review economic, transport, and humanitarian cooperation and progress on a joint commission roadmap.